Sign the Man? Luol Deng

Sign the Man is back and this week it's time to take a look at an unhappy guy in Cleveland….

Shit, that doesn't narrow it down much. Take two.

Sign the Man is back and this week it's time to take a look at long, defensive-minded small forward from South Sudan who is unhappy in Cleveland.

If you guessed Kueth Duany then you would be the kind of guy I'd love to talk shop with, but you would also be wrong. Kueth's back in Sudan fixing his country. No better man for that tall drink of a job.

The real answer is the 7th pick of the 2004 NBA draft, Mr. Luol Deng, and as one of the best unrestricted free agents on the market, the man is going to have some options.

His History

Over the course of his 10 year career, Luol Deng has been a fantastic role player capable of shouldering the teams load for stretches. His career basic-stat averages are this:

16 ppg/6.3rbg/2.5apg/1.5 stockspg

His metrics reflect the above written stat line showing a PER of 15.8 and a career total of 60.6 Win Shares. He is a 2x NBA All-Star. He was second team All-Defense in 2012. He even showed the decency to go out and win a damn Sportsmanship Award in 2007, which also happened to be his best statistical season having shot 51% from the field.

He plays with the efficiency you would expect from a guy who led a team like Duke to the Final Four. For nine seasons, he performed, entertained and impressed the Chicago Bulls organization and its fans in a professional way. He was the How I Met Your Mother of athletic wings.

But then….

Cleveland.

I recall one time being in an airport and overhearing a male flight attendant say "Never stay at the Comfort Inn in Toledo" and since then my vision of Northern Ohio has plummeted to a low that rivals Herman Boone's tolerance of fumbling the football. There is no doubt that Deng experienced the permanent dark cloud south of Lake Erie and his performance reflected that. It's now known that he did not enjoy his time in Cleveland, and he has no plans to resign with them this offseason. Despite the pain of leaving Chicago, a place that was his home for nine years, Deng still put up his traditional 15+ PER and averaging around 14 ppg in Cleveland. All that is good and dandy, but while in Cleveland, he lost more than a drunk-father-of-four at the track. At 29, and at the back nine of a very successful career, there is no doubt that Deng will want to to find a team that can not only win, but also not be Cleveland.

His Value

Deng made just over $14 million last year, but it will likely take a miracle or a splash of agent-to-GM extortion for him to match that again for his post-30 contract. Last year, he turned down a 3 year $30 million extension from the Bulls. This suggests that if you want Luol Deng this off-season you need to make him an offer of something north of $10 mil/year, but south of $14 mil/year, unless of course you enjoy overpaying for things, in which case may I suggest a Floyd Mayweather fight?

Nevertheless, Deng has a comrade in Andre Iguodala to point to in negotiating contracts for free agent small forwards around 30. Statistics show that Iggy has been a slightly better player over his career when compared to Deng, but those numbers are inflated due to the fact that Iggy was the go-to player in Philly for much of his career. Iguodala signed a 4 year/$48mil deal with Golden State and earned himself a First Team All-Defense nod. Those numbers are well-within Deng's wheelhouse and is likely what he will be seeking.

What's Going To Happen?

If you recall last season, Igoudala actually took a slight pay cut to play in Golden State. He was apparently an hour away from signing with Dallas, he received a larger offer from Sacramento, but ultimately he really wanted to be a part of Steph Curry-led attack.


This summer, I don't think Dallas is going to let another opportunity to get a veteran wing man to pair with Dirk and Monta Ellis (assuming they both resign) pass. Contract details will largely depend on what happens with Dirk, but recent sources are saying Mark Cuban wants Luol Deng and is going to make a hard sell to get him in early July. Since I am in a predicting mood, I would guess that Deng will get a two year deal worth around to $25mil/year. He has a history with injuries, and if Dallas is going to sandwich him with a potential nucleus of Dirk, Monta and maybe Pau Gasol, then they need long term flexibility. Again it is very hard to say if that is even possible because all four of those players will want hefty money, but his fit and price tag seem about right.

And if he happens to get a slight more than Igoudala's average of $12mil/year, then I can only hope that he sends the surplus back to Kueth Duany and the boys back in South Sudan.

Sign The Man? Eric Bledsoe

As we approach NBA free agency, I'm going to be taking a look at upcoming restricted and unrestricted free agents and addressing their value. Last week we dealt with the Celtics Avery Bradley. This week I take a look at upcoming Suns restricted free agent Eric Bledsoe.

His History

The 18th pick in the 2010 NBA draft, Eric Bledsoe has been hard to figure out ever since he entered Big Blue Nation in 2009. While there, Bledsoe played as a 2 guard next to John Wall, which many think disguised his true skill set. This skill set was further hidden from us after the Clippers traded for Chris Paul in 201, which basically gave Bledsoe no shot at seeing any reasonable burn.  In 2012, Bledsoe showed some promise and potential and got his name floated in a few trades, including the infamous Doc Rivers-to-the-Clippers thing. That season he averaged 8.5 ppg and had a PER of 17.5. He was an above-average guard and he was trending upwards. Eventually, he gets traded to the Suns, a team who likes to turn that game speed setting to high, and Bledsoe came out of his shell like a 10th grade guy who just read a Tale of Two Titties for the first time. He only played 43 games last year, but he showed he could do a little bit of everything. He averaged 17.7 ppg/5.5apg/4.7rbg. His PER was 19.6, and virtually every other metric was solid, if not above average. His game/skill set appeals to both the advanced statistic nerds and the basketball purists. He's the Natalie Portman of basketball players.

We know he is super athletic. We know he is very explosive. But we don't know if he has what it takes to be a Max player, capable of telling his teammates to "jump on his back"a la Cedric Maxwell in the 1984 Finals. The Suns have $30 million in cap space this upcoming season,
which I'm sure has Bledsoe's agent waking up with a boner more often than not. But on the contrary, this cap space is also likely causing Suns GM Ryan McDonough to stare himself in a mirror or two and ask himself this question:

Is Eric Bledsoe a max player?

That depends on a lot of things, most importantly, who Mr. Bledsoe would be surrounded by in the Desert. After all, max players are lot like women, man, it's all how you hold 'em.

His Value

If Bledsoe were to sign a max deal, then he's looking at about $60mil over 4 years. The way max contracts work for players with six or fewer years of experience is to award them a maximum of 25% of the that years salary cap. Thus, 25% of a salary cap of $58.6 mil leaves Bledsoe with a max yearly salary of $14.65 mil. This puts him as a little bit cheaper version of Russell Westbrook, which is actually a pretty decent comparison when you think about.

Obviously, the Suns will wait and see if another team first offers Bledsoe a max contract. This same type of shit happened last year with Phoenix when they tried to poach Eric Gordon away from New Orleans with a maximum salary offer sheet, but New Orleans matched it. Right now, reports are saying Phoenix will match any max offer for Bledsoe. This is probably the wisest move. It's technically a max contract, but there's not much max to it. Like being a Varsity captain, but doing it on the track team.

If I'm His Agent

Give me max money, and bake me a bundtcake. Bargaining-wise, it shouldn't be that difficult to get someone to pay for Bledsoe's services. There are a few troubling aspects, such as surgery to repair torn cartilage in his knee and the fact that we don't know if Bledsoe has what it takes to be an alpha male. But that shouldn't hold any GM's bak. The max money isn't too steep, and the Suns have the juice to keep him out West where he can go to RnR with Subbi in the off-season.

If I'm The Suns

Frankly, I'm worried if I do sign Bledsoe and he does end up going to RnR with Subbi in the off-season. I've been to RnR with Subbi. That's the mans league. Bring your lunch pail to that one, because you're gonna get worked.

More legitimate concerns I would have would be the fact that Bledsoe and Goran "The Dragon" Dragic are pretty similar players who play pretty similar positions. Both are capable of playing the 1 and 2. Both are young and have tremendous upside. But, do I really want put $20mil/year into one combo-guard position (The Dragon gets 7.5 mil a year which is basically a bigger steal than a Danny Ocean movie) or would I prefer to diversify my assets like any half-way decent financial advisor would suggest? With all this cap space, maybe I'm better off going after a different type of player like a defensive instigator/douchebag in Lance Stephenson or a do-it-all big man like Greg Monroe.

The point is just because Eric Bledsoe is on your team, you have the final say in signing him, and he's actually pretty fucking good…it does not mean that you have to do it. The League is littered with max contracts that were signed because it seemed logical at the time and there wasn't an alternative. But that is just the wrong way to look at things. There shouldn't even be discussions of "alternatives." You have your plan and you accomplish that. No detours.  Yes, you may be forced to rely on bargains at times. But, if your plan is build around two combo guards to the tune of 20 million a year then sign Eric Bledsoe. If it's not, then don't sign the man. No matter how reasonable it may seem.

Sign the Man? Avery Bradley

The Boston Celtics have a lot of difficult decisions to make this summer in their quest to provide competitive basketball to their insatiable fan base.  It starts with the draft on the 26th of June, but I'm not getting into that here. One of the more difficult decisions Celtics GM Danny Ainge will have is whether or not to resign the tenacious, yet injury prone, 23 year old "three and D" guy.

His History
The Celtics drafted Bradley with the 19th overall selection in the 2010 draft. They will extend Bradley a qualifying offer worth 125% of his previous years salary (around $2.5mil in 2013) making it around $3.5mil in 2014. This makes Bradley a restricted free agent, and allows the C's to match any offer extended his way during the off-season. The kicker here, which will probably ramp up the drama in July, is that last December the Celtics actually offered Bradley a 4 year/$24mil deal that Bradley and his team rejected. At the time, Bradley thought he was worth more like $8m/year so no deal was done.

Then, he got hurt.

Again.

For those keeping track at home, during the course of his career Bradley has had surgery on both shoulders, on his ankle, and now he's having problems with his achilles. He's 23 years old. This is not like you or me playing at the local court where we can have one of our paper-thin shoulders slide out only to return after a grimace, and a proclivity to rebound with one arm for the rest of the game. Bradley's game is built upon him being physical with scorers who are often bigger than him. He needs to be able to get up on his opponent, smell what type of deoderant they wearing, and slide his feet like Junior Senior. This is a legitimate concern for a young guy, and the laws of human development suggest it will be a bigger concern as he ages.

His Value
Even with his injury history, it doesn't mean he still isn't valuable. This past season, he sets career highs in points per game (14.9),  total rebound percentage and turnover percentage. His PER was a lackluster 12.7, but his overall game has improved. He is honing his skills as the trendy 'three and d' guy after shooting 39% from downtown. Bradley and his camp will be able to point to these improving skills, and the increasing value of a player with these skills (see Danny Green), as a way to justify a better deal.

With that said, when playing in a city like Boston, numbers from the first 3/4 of an NBA season on a team that is tanking need to be taken with a grain of salt. Celtic fans are concerned with winning titles, and for that reason, performance in the playoffs is what carries the buttermilk. This is important because Avery Bradley has historically been terrible in the playoffs. During the 2012 run, Bradley played just around 25 minutes per game and was valuable as a defender and role player (although the numbers tell a different story. They say he was bad). A better sample to look at was last years playoffs when Bradley played a larger role and averaged around 32 minutes a game against the Knicks. Bradley was atrocious during this series often getting humiliated by the likes of an overweight Rebook employee (Raymond Felton). Bradley's PER was 6.7 and his turnover percentage was something to write horror stories about at 20.1%.

The point being it's very difficult to tell what type of player Bradley will be at 26-27-28 years old. His numbers and upside could paint the picture that he is a $7/$8mil player per year. But, his timid attitude and tendency to get the playoff jitters could ultimately cause him to ride the pine in those critical Game 6's and 7's. A guy earning $8mil needs to be on the court in the playoffs, and he needs to be reliable. Bradley's injury history and playoff performaces put this into serious question. Take a look at comparable players in the league and their contracts:

Arron Afflalo - 7.75mil/year
Wes Matthews - 7(ish)mil/year
Gerald Henderson - 6mil/year
Tony Allen- 5(ish)mil/year

Matthews is probably the best comparison to Bradley in terms of style of play and identity. The Blazers lucked out after signing him to a 5 year $34mi offer sheet in 2010, plucking him away from the Jazz. The difference is Matthews has developed into a wildly efficient shooting guard and his balls in the playoffs are the size of an Irish broad's ass.

If I'm His Agent
As Bradley's agent, I'm getting in touch with those teams that need some toughness on the defensive end, but also don't play in the most demanding of markets. Teams like Utah, Phoenix and Charlotte. I'm asking for around $8mil/year, and my sales pitch will be a heavy dose of defensive efficiency with a splash of young age. If I really want to make sure Bradley does not go back to Boston, I need to make the offer sheet large enough to ensure the Celtics don't match it. $8mil/year is definitely a large enough deal to let Bradley channel his inner-Affleck, and put the entire town in his rear view.

If I'm the Celtics
I match any offer sheet up $7mil/year. If he's not getting those $8mil/year offers then I will know that the market has spoken. If the offer sheet is anywhere between $7.5 and $8 a year, then I would have no choice but to take a fifth of Jack, the complete set of The Godfather and my "Film Room" Spotify playlist into the bunker where I'll hopefully emerge after 24 hours with an answer and a rebooted mind.